A series of African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in Western Ukraine has triggered a 20% drop in pork prices in the country since October. As a result, the pig industry is facing one of the worst crises in recent years, Nikolay Babenko, director of the Ukrainian Meat Industry Association, told the local newspaper Kommersant Ukrainian.
ASF has affected several Western regions, including Kyiv and Chernihiv, over the past 2 months, with some large farms suffering significant losses, Babenko revealed.
Photo: Vincent ter Beek
The Ukrainian veterinary service has repeatedly reported new ASF outbreaks registering at farms across the central and western parts of the country over the last 2 months, but there is no complete information on total losses.
Infected meat hits the market
Ukrainian sanitary services continue to uncover cases of farmers trying to sell infected animals. Such practice, which remains somewhat widespread, triggers a “chain reaction” of reinfection. Besides, excess supply on the pork market has led to dumping.
“Pig farmers’ expectations of possible earnings increases before the New Year will obviously not be realized. Prices will likely continue to decline,” Babenko said.
Farmers in trouble
Industry analysts warn that by early 2026, prices could fall to 2024 levels, risking a major industry downturn and mass closures. “This is the worst-case scenario for producers: they’ll enter 2026 with very low prices. For many, they will be below operational cost,” Babenko warned. “There’s a chance the industry could shrink significantly”.
Some farmers who have already endured such price swings in the market may not want to resume operations, Babenko noted.
Vincent ter Beek
Source: pigprogress 04/12/2025
