An average large Polish farm will suffer losses of around PLN 130,000 (€31,000) per year due to the signing of the EU-Mercosur agreement, a survey conducted by Polskie Radio showed. For a large number of farms, the new trade rules will become a death sentence.
On average, Poland’s poultry farmers will face a drop in profit from PLN 0.52 (€0.12)/kg to just PLN 0.26 (€0.06)/kg, which essentially means that the industry will see its net profit halved during the next few years.
Analysts warn that expanding poultry imports from Latin America will incur irreversible damage to the family poultry farms segment. By 2030, farms operating on areas of 10-50 ha will see their income drop by up to 40%, which will likely result in a wave of consolidation, with a large portion of medium-sized players eventually disappearing. Image generated with the help of AI (Reve)
Irreversible damage
Moreover, analysts warned, expanding poultry imports from Latin America will incur irreversible damage to the family poultry farms segment. By 2030, farms operating on areas of 10-50 ha will see their income drop by 20-40%. As a result, the industry will witness a wave of consolidation, with a large portion of medium-sized players eventually disappearing.
“Polish farmers are entering this period in a state of high vulnerability, stemming from the combination of falling grain prices, rising energy costs, and the stringent requirements of the [European] Green Deal,” the analysts warned.
A financial blow
The financial impact on Poland’s poultry exports is expected to be stark. Sales to foreign customers are projected to decline by €225 million per year, to around €540 million. Against this background, between 15,000 and 30,000 jobs in the industry will be in jeopardy.
The poultry industry is not the only one bracing for the impact. Beef exports are forecast to drop by €160 million to only €300 million per year, putting up to 15,000 jobs at risk. Dairy exports are also expected to drop by nearly a third to €166 million.
The total annual losses to Poland’s agriculture sector as a result of the impact of the EU-Mercosur agreement will range between €500 million and €1.06 billion per year, Polskie Radio calculated.
A complex impact
However, the overall impact on Poland’s economy will be far more complex. The analysts estimated that, though agriculture will be negatively affected, this will be well compensated by a rise in revenue in the automotive, machinery, and pharmaceutical sectors. In fact, Poland’s economy can gain up to €2 billion in profit per year from the agreement, even when farmers’ losses are taken into account.
A ‘brutal confrontation’
Still, this is a small сomfort for Poland’s farmers, who will soon find themselves in extremely unfair conditions. “While Polish farmers must document every gramme of fertiliser, Brazilian landowners reduce unit costs by using GMO feed and neonicotinoids, making price competition impossible to win through operational optimisation alone,” the analysts said. “This isn’t a battle of quality, but a brutal confrontation between 2 radically different agricultural production models.”
Vladislav Vorotnikov
Source: poultryworld 24/02/2026
